December 7, 2022

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10 year yield falls below its 200 hour moving average

1 min read

The high yield from last week stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April swing high

The 10 year yield is trading down about 6.4 basis points at 1.237%. 

The high yield from last week stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April swing high_

The move to the downside has been helped by weaker Empire manufacturing data, concerns about Covid/lower global growth, as well as a flight to safety after the retaking of Afghanistan by the Taliban over the weekend.

Technically, the price highs last week stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high. That level came in at 1.3745% the high price reached 1.3780% (twice) before moving down sharply on Friday after the much weaker than expected Michigan consumer sentiment.

Technically, the price decline on Friday fell below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) and continued the decline below its 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 1.2783%) today. Stay below that moving average line keeps the downside momentum in play for the US benchmark yield.

While the highs from last week formed a double top near 1.3780%, the lows for the cycle in the 10 year yield has also formed a double bottom near 1.1274%. That lower yield floor is the downside target as long as the price can remain below its 200 hour moving average.




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