The Atlanta Fed did a good job of forecasting Q2
This week’s Q2 GDP was below the consensus estimate but at 6.5% it was virtually in line with the Atlanta Fed tracker at 6.4%.
That number will be revised many times in the coming months but the details of the report indicated that inventory builds and bottlenecks will stretch out the US recovery over a longer horizon.
The model forecasts 6.1% GDP growth annualized in Q3, which keeps up the impressive recovery pace. That’s on the lower side of the consensus, which is around 7.2%. Obviously, it’s early and the numbers will shift significantly based on incoming data.