February 3, 2023

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AUD/NZD targets May low after RBNZ policy decision

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AUD/NZD falls below key trendline support, looks towards 1.0600 next

AUD/NZD D1 14-07
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The pair is trading pretty much a classic case of policy divergence, as the RBNZ tilts more hawkishly while the RBA is still biding its time while maintaining a more dovish stance at its latest policy meeting on 6 July earlier this month.

The difference in terms of policy approach is made clear today as the RBNZ puts a stop to QE purchases, and that is reflected in the kiwi price action as well.

Looking at the chart above, the pair had managed to find some comfort in recent days, pushing back towards the 200-day moving average (blue line) but failing to post a daily close above that, despite a relatively solid advance to 1.0740 yesterday.

The drag today hurts even more as we see price fall through key trendline support @ 1.0649 now and there is an empty pocket through to the May low @ 1.0600 next.

If that gives way, there isn’t much until the February low @ 1.0541 and there is a strong case for that to play out considering the quickening policy divergence. From earlier:

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