December 10, 2022

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Australia consumer inflation expectations rise to 3.5% in May (prior 3.2%)

1 min read

The Australian survey of consumer inflation expectations is not generally an FX mover upon release. 

  • Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations
  • a monthly survey of Australian households
  • intended to show consumer perceptions of the state of the economy
  • running since 1974

I’ve posted before on inflation expectations:

A concern for central banks is to keep inflation expectations anchored. In a nutshell:

  • The argument is that inflation expectations can become self-fulfilling. For example during times of increasing inflation – people see inflation rising so they tend to buy more quickly, thus prompting prices to rise faster. People expect faster inflation (i.e. its ‘unanchored’ … rising quickly)
  • On the flipside, if inflation is either very low or in deflation (i.e. general falling prices), people hold off purchasing ’cause there is no rush if prices are falling, and again the argument is this behaviour can feed on itself and grow as a problem. People expect falling prices to fall harder (‘unanchored’). 

The RBA has a much, much more detailed look at inflation expectations and in particular its impact on fixed interest markets, link here. Even just checking out the introduction to the paper gives good information.  

inflation expectations




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