December 4, 2022

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Canada June employment +230.7K vs +195K expected

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Canada June 2021 employment report highlights

Canada June employment
  • Prior was -68K
  • Full time -33.2K versus -13.8K last month
  • Part-time 263.9K versus -54.2K last month
  • Unemployment rate 7.8% versus 8.2% last month
  • Participation rate 65.2% versus 64.6% prior
  • Hourly wage rate for permanent employees +0.1% vs -1.44% y/y prior
  • Accommodation and food services +101K
  • Retail trade +75K
  • Goods producing -48K
  • Construction -23K
  • Unemployment rate adjusted to US concepts 6.3%
  • Full report

This data was slow to trickle out because of trouble at Statistics Canada’s website.

The full time jobs lost is a disappointment but they had held up well in the prior month of job losses so perhaps that’s not a big surprise. The reopening of retail is more of a factor for part-time jobs in any case.

What stands out to me is the climb in participation by 0.6 pp combined with a 0.4 pp decline in unemployment. That’s a full point swing altogether and highlights a rapidly recovering labor force. Lockdowns are still in effect in July in much of Canada but vaccination has been extremely fast and nearing 80% with one jab. So the opening will be swift in July/Aug and Macklem is likely to be optimistic next Wednesday, especially given that the latest GDP data was strong.

USD/CAD dipped to 1.2470 on the report but has rebounded to 1.2495 and is above pre-release levels.

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