February 4, 2023

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Canada March CPI +2.2% y/y vs +2.3% expected

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Canada March 2021 inflation data:

  • Prior was +1.1% y/y
  • CPI +0.5% m/m % vs +0.6% expected
  • Prior m/m reading was 0.5%

Core measures (y/y):

  •    Median 2.1% vs 2.1% exp (prior 2.0%)
  •    Common 1.5% vs 1.4% exp (prior 1.3%)
  •    Trim 2.2% vs 2.0% exp (prior 1.9%)

The headline is fractionally soft but the core measures are moving up quickly and that’s what will get the BOC’s attention. In a normal period, a central bank would be thinking about true tightening right now but the central banking world has been captured by the idea that they can keep rates low for another two years without causing problems, even as Canadian house prices soar.

The Bank of Canada rate decision is coming up at 1400 GMT (10 am ET). Here is a full preview.

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