December 8, 2022

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Dollar reaching new lows versus the EUR, JPY, CHF, NZD

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Dollar going lower into the London close

As London/European traders look to exit, the USD is trading to new session lows vs the EUR, JPY, CHF, CAD and NZD. 

EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved up to the highest level since July 6 and in the process is testing its 61.8% retracement of the move down from the June 25 high. That comes in at 1.18893. The next upside target comes in at 1.18947. That was the high going back to July 6.  Looking at the 5 minute chart, the buyers have been able to stay above its 100 bar moving average on that chart (blue line). That moving average currently comes in at 1.18772. It would take a move below that moving average level, the 50% of the last trend leg higher at 1.1870, and the rising 200 bar MA at 1.1865 to tilt the bias more to the downside.  If those steps cannot be taken, the buyers are still holding the better hand. 

Dollar going lower into the London close

USDJPY: The USDJPY move below its 100 day moving average in the last hourly bar. That moving average comes in at 109.567.  The low reached 109.464.  Stay below the 100 day moving average keeps the Bears/sellers firmly in control.

USDJPY is below its 100 day moving average

USDCHF: The USDCHF move below its 200 day moving average today at 0.90732. THe low price reached 0.90543. The quick and dirty short term technical bias remains negative as well was the price can remain below the 200 day moving average. A move above and sellers below the MA line, would likely cover and we should see more upside corrective probing. For now, the sellers are more control. 

USDCHF falls below its 200 day moving average

NZDUSD: The NZDUSD has trended higher and in the process has moved up to test its 61.8% retracement target of the July trading range at 0.70188.  There is some stall against the retracement target. The price currently trades at 0.70104.  

NZDUSD on the hourly chart

Looking at the 5-minute chart below, a corrective low in the NA session did crack below the 100 bar moving average on the five minute chart (blue line), but momentum stalled well ahead of the rising 200 bar moving average (green line in the chart below) and restarted the upside momentum.  It would take a move below the earlier swing highs at 0.7002, 0.6997 and the rising 100 bar moving average at 0.69951 to give sellers some comfort, and also cause buyers to feel more uncomfortable after the trend move higher.  

NZDUSD on the five minute chart

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