February 2, 2023

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Economic data coming up in the European session

2 min read

A light calendar day to start the new week

The dollar suffered from a shocking NFP miss on Friday, falling across the board as the FX market pared back bets on the Fed turning more hawkish sooner.

Treasury yields also plunged in the wake of the report but staged an impressive rebound to keep higher, with 10-year yields settling close to 1.59% currently.

But the dollar failed to really take much comfort in that as it kept lower with key technicals being challenged across the board.

The dollar index itself has fallen below a key trendline support for the year with EUR/USD also breaking above its earlier broken key resistance trendline once again.


The better gauge in my view on dollar sentiment is the Bloomberg dollar index (BBDXY) chart and that shows that the greenback has erased gains for the year* on the Friday jobs report, as the rally this year stalls and the market has a second look.

As for equities, the miss just feeds into the notion that the Fed will keep as it is for longer and that means the BRRR!!! machine goes on and on and on. Good stuff.

For trading today, it’s all about assessing the post-NFP hangover and if the market has the appetite to take a run at the dollar with EUR/USD keeping at its highest levels since February and GBP/USD breaking above 1.4000, helped by stronger pound sentiment as fears of a second Scottish independence referendum recedes.

0730 GMT – UK April Halifax house prices data

Prior release can be found here. The UK housing market should remain more robust with the stamp duty holiday still in effect but the outlook for later in the year may see sentiment ease, though a strong recovery could still fuel demand appetite.

0800 GMT – SNB total sight deposits w.e. 7 May

Your weekly check of the deposits kept at the SNB by Swiss banks. This data is a proxy for FX interventions.

0830 GMT – Eurozone May Sentix investor confidence

Prior release can be found here. As the vaccine rollout slowly gathers pace, optimism is growing for a stronger rebound in 2H 2021 across the region. That should once again be reflected in the report here as it was last month.

That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

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