January 19, 2022

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EURUSD bounces higher, but buyers not out of the woods yet

2 min read

The low for the year  at 1.16634 cannot be broken. The low for the day has reached 1.1671.

The EURUSD has just jumped higher to a North American session high price of 1.17005, but has moved back down to 1.1682 currently. The ECB Kazimir said that the ECB will not automatically boost asset purchase program when the crisis aid ends.  I am not sure that was the catalyst or did the sellers run out of patients as the price remains above the 2021 low from August 20 at 1.16637. The low price today has so far reached 1.1671 some eight pips above that low. (PS Fed chair Powell is also starting his testimony)

For the year the EURUSD range is only 682pips. That is very narrow historically.  It suggests that there will likely be an extension before the end of the year. The closest extreme is obviously to the downside. 

 

The low for the year  at 1.16634 cannot be broken. The low for the day has reached 1.1671.

Does a break happen now?

The USD is getting bid up as US rates move higher, but so are overseas rates.  The USD has an advantage of being more of a safe haven currency in times of distress and anxiety (i.e. lower stocks).  That may be fundamental reasons for a break to the downside.  

Having said that, the technicals need to support the fundamentals. Right now looking at the hourly chart, the price has made some runs above its 100 hour moving average of the last week or so of trading (blue line in the chart above), but have not been able to extend above the 200 hour moving average. Those levels come in at 1.17124 and 1.17257 respectively. 

The bounce back up to the 1.1700 level just seen and hold there also moved into a swing area between 1.16996 and 1.17054. That area is my first hurdle if the buyers are to start to find some comfort in buying the dip. Get above that area and the falling 100 hour moving average at 1.17124 and the falling 200 hour moving average at 1.17257 would be needed to give the buyers some comfort.  Absent that and they are not winning. The sellers are winning.

The price is back up toward 1.1700 as I type. Watch the 1.17054 level for more bullish clues on a break above. There may also be sellers against the level keeping the bias firmly to the downside. Key test.




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