The high stalled in a May swing area
The EURUSD is consolidating in a narrow 28 pip trading range in up and down trading. The pair did extended into a swing area defined by highs from May 19, May 21 and May 26 between 1.22393 and 1.22448. The high price reached 1.22408 today before rotating back to the downside.
The low price of 1.22127 has stalled ahead of its 200 hour moving average of 1.22098. It will take a move below that moving average, and the lower 100 hour MA at 1.22013 (and 1.2200 too) to tilt the bias more to the downside from a technical perspective.
The price of the EURUSD as been trading up and down since May 18. Most the activity has been between 1.2158 below, and 1.22448 above. Last week the pair extended above the upper extreme but ultimately failed and resistance was reestablished in the swing area (see red number 6). On the downside, the price also fell below the lower value area below 1.2158 on it’s way to the low for the week near 1.2132 (and the 61.8% retracement). That move below the 1.21582 area, also failed and the led to a move back above the 100/200 converged MAs in trading yesterday.
Those MAs are now support. Stay above keeps the price in the upper end of the range and keeps a more bullish tilt to the bias. Getting back above the 1.2239 – 448 area would have traders targeting the high from May at 1.22657.
Conversely moving back below the 100 hour moving average (at 1.22013) would have traders looking toward 1.21836 (38.2% retracement and lows from Monday’s trade), and potentially back down toward the 1.2158 area.
For now though, the chop continues with the moving averages as support.