February 3, 2023

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EURUSD extends the range after PPI but not by much

2 min read

The range is a small 21 pips so far

The EURUSD made a new low after the US PPI and claims data. That’s the exciting news. The not so exciting news is that the range was extended to 21 pips for the DAY (it was 16 pips).  The average is 51 pips over the last month as summer doldrums keep the trading ranges confined.  

The range is a small 21 pips so far

The good news is there is room to roam.   If the average is met, there are 30 pips to go.  

The pair has a more bearish bias:

  • The price tried to move above the falling 100 hour MA (closed one bar above), but that momentum could not be sustained and the price has stayed below the falling line over the last 3 hourly bars.
  • The high today stalled below a swing area above between 1.1751 to 1.17566 (see yellow area and red numbered circles). Stay below is more bearish

Yesterday, the pair advanced the upside after the CPI came in about as expected, but it is still 5.4% YoY. That is much higher than other inflation rates around the globe (Germany 3.8%, UK 2.5%, France 1.2%).  The high stalled within the aforementioned swing area between 1.1751 and 1.17566.  It will take a move above that level to get traders more worried about the upside (and perhaps encourage some short covering from the technical sellers below).

Although the technicals still point to the downside on the hourly chart, there is work to do. The 1.17248 has developed as a swing area from Tuesdays and Wednesdays trade (see green numbered circles).  The price needs to get below that level to increase the bearish bias and have traders targeting the low from yesterday at 1.17053 and the low from 2021 at 1.17035.       

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