Test the 1.2169-61 area
The EURUSD has moved back up to retest the old floor area between 1.2159 and 1.2161. That level was a swing low (sans the spike lower on May 28). See the red numbered circles.
Traders initially have leaned against the level. The pair is currently, as I type, taking a peek above the level. Traders who have sold against the level are locked and loaded in case there is increased momentum (will buy). More momentum above and traders will look toward the 1.2178 area which is the 50% retracement of the move down this week. A swing area is also just below that level between 1.21738 to 1.21775.
The market broke lower yesterday, and in the process moved outside of the “red box” that has confined most of the trading since May 17/18. There were extremes above and below that box, but the value area was firmly between 1.2159 and 1.22448.
As I fill in the post, the price is probing further to the upside, and as moved toward the 50% midpoint of the week’s trading range. Getting back into the red box is a disappointment for the shorts/sellers.
In other markets, the stock futures are implying: