February 3, 2023

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EURUSD trades back down to the lows from yesterday

2 min read

High for the day stalls near 1.1800 level (and below the 100 hour MA).

The EURUSD started the week yesterday with a volatile down and up trading day. The low yesterday trade at the lowest level since April 2021 at 1.1763. The low for 2021 came at the end of March at 1.17035. 

High for the day stalls near 1.1800 level (and below the 100 hour MA).

Looking at the hourly chart the rebound off the low yesterday rocketed (like Blue Origin) straight up toward the 200 hour moving average at 1.18242 (at the time). Traders leaned against the 200 hour moving average with the high price stalling at 1.18239 -just below its MA level. Risk was defined and limited against that level. Traders took advantage of that level.

The subsequent fall and continuation to the downside today (in up and down trading), took the price back below the 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.18071), and the 1.1800 natural resistance level.  A ceiling developed near 1.18019 yesterday and into today as well (just above 1.1800).  The last few hours has seen the price rotate to a new session low with that low stalling just above the low from yesterday.  The low from yesterday was at 1.17631. The low today just reached 1.17643.

Clearly traders are leaning against the low from yesterday just because risk can be defined and limited against level. If the price were to dip below the level, I would expect more sellers. The bearish bias would intensify.

For now although the bias remains negative below the 100 hour moving average and 200 hour moving averages, and also below the 1.1800 level, there is a reason for dip buying especially given the volatile up and down price action seen yesterday and again today.

What would give the dip buyers some added confidence now?

Get above the low from last week at 1.17708 followed by a move above the 1.17809 low going back to July 7.  Above that the 1.1800 to 1.18019 and the 100 hour MA at 1.18071 would be targeted.  Ultimately, it would take a move also above the 200 hour MA at 1.18232 to give buyers more control from a technical perspective. 

ON the downside, a move to a new low would have traders eyeing the low for the year at 1.17035 (call it 1.1700).  

The EURUSD on the daily chart.

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