November 29, 2022

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GBPUSD trades above and below 100 hour MA after post BOE move lower

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Back below 100 day MA again

The GBPUSD has seen the price move higher over the last three trading days. That move higher took the price back above its 100 hour moving average (currently at 1.3908), the 100 day moving average (currently at 1.3945) and even reached the 200 hour moving average (green line). 

The moves above the 200 hour moving average both yesterday and again today, should’ve solicited more buying, but in reality, the momentum was a very limited. There were three hourly bars today that moved above the level, but quickly failed (with no closes above the 200 hour moving average level).

Back below 100 day MA again

Ahead of the Bank of England decision, the 100 day moving average at 1.39545, had stalled the falls.  The pair was confined in trading and waiting for the next shove.

Post BOE, the price cracked below that hundred day moving average level and tumbled to and through the 100 hour moving average 1.39082.  

The low price reached 1.38897 which was between a modest swing area going back to last week (see red numbered circles).  The price has rebounded back above the 100 hour moving average and is trading between the 100 day moving average above at 1.3945 and the 100 hour moving average below at 1.3908. The current price is at 1.3927 (as I type).  

Between the levels, and buyers and sellers are in a battle. A move below the 100 hour moving average, and the bias tilts more to the downside with 1.3886 as the next target to get through. Below that is a swing area between 1.38535 and 1.38616 (see green numbered circles). That level defines the lower extreme area down to the June 21 low at 1.37856 (from Monday). Get below and traders will start to think toward making another run at the low (which is the lowest level since April 16). 

On a move toward the 100 day moving average, I would expect sellers to lean against that level (risk is defined and limited), with stops on a break above.  

A move above would be more bullish, but the price action over the last two days shows that it will take a momentum move above the 200 hour moving average. Sellers have been more comfortable selling near that moving average level versus buying.  

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