The up and down price action continues.
The GBPUSD on Monday, gave the “old college try” to get to and above a key topside swing area between 1.41937 and 1.4000 (well up to 1.4203 which was the high from last week). The high yesterday reached 1.41901, short of that area and settled lower into the close (closed at 1.4173).
Asian traders could not get anything going to the upside, and ultimately, the price fell back below its 200 hour moving average (green line) and the 50% midpoint of the range from last week’s trading at 1.41657. The price stayed below that level after a rebound test of the 200 hour MA. That gave sellers the go-ahead to push back below its 100 hour moving average.
The last seven hours has seen most of the price action below the 200 hour MA line at 1.41486. However, the last three hours has seen the price traded above and below that 100 hour moving average. The move lower in the yields may have contributed to some dollars selling. However, there may be some reluctance to the upside as the price has not been able to close above that moving average level. Ultimately, if the buyers are to take control, not only with the price have to trade and close above the 100 hour moving average, but also get above the 200 hour moving average and 50% midpoint near 1.4165. Until then, the bias is either negative or neutral (between the MAs).
The GBPUSD has been mired in an up and down trading range going back to around May 17. On the downside the 1.4110 to 1.41152 area is an area to get to and through for more bearish bias (see green numbered circles). On the topside, the 1.4200 area would need to be broken and stay broken, to get buyers more confidence to make a run toward the highs at 1.42193, 1.42331 and ultimately the June 1 high of 1.42493 (recall the Feb 2021 high was at 1.4240 and is also a level of importance for buyers).