March 26, 2023

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GBPUSD turned away at the bullish door. Rotates lower.

2 min read

The 2021 high from February stalls the rally.

The GBPUSD moved up earlier in the day.  Retail sales and PMI preliminary data was better than expected. However, there was overhead resistance defined by the 2021 high from February 25 at 1.4240 to contend with on the rally. 

The high for the day reach 1.42333 less than seven pips short of that key upside target and closest bulllish/bearish barometer on the daily chart. A move above would be more bullish and have traders targeting the 50% of the move down from the 2014 high at 1.42996 (call it 1.4300).  Staying below and the battle is on between sellers against resistance and the more bullish trend. For today, the traders knocked on the bullish door above, but the door did not open (at least for now). 

The 2021 high from February stalls the rally.

Drilling to the hourly chart helps to define the sellers hope.  Looking at it, there are two areas of interest that would give sellers more confidence.   The first comes in between 1.41789 1.4183.That area was home to swing lows from Tuesday and Wednesday. The price traded above and below the area late yesterday and in the Asian/early London session today. However, getting back below it – especially after failing on the run toward the 2021 high – should be more bearish.  

The second area is defined by swing highs going back to May 10 to May 12 between 1.41524 and 1.41654. Also in that area sits the rising 100 hour moving average of 1.41614.  Get below that area, and once again, sellers are feeling more confident and should lead to further probing with the 200 hour moving average at 1.41245 (and rising) as another key target. 

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