German economy minister, Peter Altmaier, confirms
- Lifts 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.0% in January outlook
- Expects 2022 GDP growth forecast of 3.6% in first official estimate
- Forecast based on assumption that virus restrictions are eased during Q2
- Expects economy to reach pre-crisis levels in 2022 at the latest
Once again, there are a lot of assumptions tied to the forecasts above. The first being that virus restrictions will be eased gradually during the current quarter and that there will be “better-than-expected” growth in Q4.
On the latter expectation, just be mindful that it was initially anticipated for Q2 and then Q3 previously. But on the other hand, the economy has been more resilient than expected in Q1 and vaccine progress has certainly provided more clarity in recent months.