November 29, 2022

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Here’s another bond market narrative … maybe surging growth, higher inflation is transitory after all

1 min read

The crushing of US yields is the conundrum du jour (/week). There are many explanations being offered but perhaps the Occam’s Razor one is the most apt?

That is, the surging economic growth being seen will not persist. And/or, at least, expectations for it have been thoroughly built in and are now being discounted.

And, the accompanying inflation pressures, well, they’ll prove transient also. 

Yea, nay? Comments welcome. 

reflation trade dead
  • Occam’s razor, also spelled Ockham’s razor, also called law of economy or law of parsimony, principle stated by the Scholastic philosopher William of Ockham (1285-1347/49) that pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate, “plurality should not be posited without necessity.” The principle gives precedence to simplicity: of two competing theories, the simpler explanation of an entity is to be preferred. The principle is also expressed as “Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity.”

(Bolding mine, simplistic characterisation of the principle)

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