December 5, 2022

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Locked and loaded for another edition of jobs Friday

2 min read

US jobs report for the month of June to be released at the bottom of the hour

It is that time again for the US jobs report.  There is a lot to digest in the report and with the debate in the Fed and markets as to the timing of Fed moves, the report can go a long way toward skewing that expectations. So far today, the US rates remain lower with the 10 year down 3-4 basis points suggesting something less than expectations (all things equal). The USDJPY is lower on the day, but has been surging to the upside over the last few days.  The EURUSD is at the lowest level since early April and the GBPUSD at the lowest since mid-April (higher USD for both of course).

What are the expectations?

  • NFP 700K estimate versus 559K last month (expectations were for 645K last month)
  • Private payrolls are expected to rise by 600K vs 492k last month
  • Manufacturing jobs are expected to rise by 28K vs 23K last month
  • Unemployment rate is expected to to dip to 5.7% versus 5.8% last month (expectations 5.9%)
  • Participation Rate came at 61.6% last month
  • U6 unemployment rate was at 10.2% last month
  • Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% versus 0.5% last month (expectations were for 0.2% last month
  • Average earnings YoY is expected to rise to 3.7% from 2.0% last month
  • Average workweek hours are expected remain unchanged at 34.9 hours

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