December 8, 2022

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Morgan Stanley stays bearish on AUD/NZD

1 min read

MS say they are neutral on the Kiwi against the US dollar but bullish on it against the Australian. 

  • We are neutral on NZD/USD still but risks are increasingly skewed to the downside as the chances of a broader-based USD rally are rising. 
  • We continue to like AUD/NZD shorts as a structural expression of RBA-RBNZ policy divergence as the RBNZ’s “Great Hawkish Shift” should continue over time

  • We might consider re-entering  NZD longs at a future date should the currency weaken enough which would render risk/reward sufficiently attractive, though we are not yet at that point especially if positioning is likely to adjust further 

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