December 6, 2022

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NY Fed Q2 GDP Nowcast slips to 3.7% from 4.2%

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Second quarter growth estimate declines

Second quarter growth estimate declines

Powell yesterday highlighted an ongoing improvement in US data but the New York Fed’s growth tracker isn’t showing that.

In light of the latest numbers, it was lowered to 3.69% from 4.20% a week ago. The Q3 indicator was also cut to 4.4% from 5.3%.

“Negative surprises from advanced retail sales and building permits data
accounted for most of the decrease in both quarters, with Empire State
Manufacturing survey data also contributing to the decline in 2021,” the report said.

We won’t be getting the Q2 numbers until July 29 so there will be plenty of shifts to come. The economist consensus is 4.7%.

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