Infrastructure could boost US growth and pull forward rate hikes
The odds of a bipartisan infrastructure deal rose today after Sen Romney said the framework was agreed and a report said Biden was likely to support it.
To be sure, there’s still a long road and politics is filled with twists and turns but the bull case is a nearly $1 trillion bill passed with bipartisan support followed by a Democrat-only bill that could be $2-4 trillion.
The dollar is creeping higher even as stocks rise, suggesting this is a US-only story rather than part of the risk trade. Interestingly, yields are lower though, which is not what you would expect on a higher prospect of more spending.
There are still plenty of details to work out though and we’re now into the quarter-end countdown so maybe I’m reading too much into the dollar move anyway.