December 6, 2022

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USDCAD falls and stays below its 200 hour MA

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Moves toward the next downside target as the lap up and back down continues

The USDCAD has been mirroring the sharp move higher seen last week (helped by weaker oil prices) with nearly identical sharp move lower on Friday and Monday.  

Moves toward the next downside target as the lap up and back down continues

Today, the pair has continued its move to the downside and is consolidating in an up and down range.  If the pattern remains true, the low today should find support near 1.25963 and the price should waffle up and down until tomorrow sometime.  I don’t think I’ve seen anything so symmetrical.

Technically, in addition to the symmetry, the price did moved below its 200 hour moving average. That comes in at 1.26492. In traded down to the topside of a swing area between 1.2996 and 1.26063. The last 10 or so hours has seen the price consolidated between that area in up and down trading.

If the pattern remains true, we should see support near the 1.2596 level (low of the yellow swing area) and trading to continue sideways until tomorrow, with a break lower from there (below the yellow area).  

Of course, it will be the 200 hour moving average above and the swing level below which will determine the next price shove. Although it would be nice to keep the symmetry, the price could break above or below  at any time.  For now, bearish below the 200 hour moving average but consolidative

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