November 29, 2022

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USDCAD moves down to test its 100/200 hour MA

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Remains in up and down trading range

The USDCAD moved up yesterday, and that move higher continued in the new trading day. However, the high stalled ahead of the topside swing area between 1.2135 and 1.21437.   

Remains in up and down trading range_

The dual jobs reports (both Canada and US were weaker than expectations), sent the pair back to the downside (USD is dominant), and into the meat of the up and down range. That range has seen the vast majority of trading take place between 1.2026 on the downside and 1.21437 on the topside.

The price decline has found some support in the middle of that range where both of the 100 and 200 hour moving averages are residing . The 100 hour moving average currently comes in at 1.2069, while the 200 hour moving average comes in at 1.20753. The low price has reached between those levels at 1.20713 so far.

The moving average is now become the barometer for the intraday technicals. Stay above and we could see a rotation back toward the 1.2100 level.  Break below, and it open the door for a move toward 1.20407 to 1.20461 area. 

The Ivey purchasing managers index for May is due out at the top of the hour. The prior index came in at 60.6. There is no estimate as the index tends to be quite volatile (and not a big market mover as a result).  US factory orders are expected to show a -0.2% decline. Durable goods were reported a few weeks ago at -1.3% with X transportation up 1.0%.  

The price of WTI crude oil futures are higher by 1.1% at $69.57. That is helping to strengthen the CAD today as well.  A move above the $70 level would certainly catch the eye of headline writers (and perhaps give the USDCAD another shove to the downside). 

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