December 6, 2022

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USDCAD runs to the upside with the USDs rise

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Technically the low yesterday and today based at a key swing area

The USDCAD has run to the upside today, following the trend in the USD after better jobs (ADP and initial jobless claims), and ISM nonmanufacturing data earlier today.

Technically the low yesterday and today based at a key swing area

The move to the upside was helped technically when the price low stalled against the swing area near 1.2029 (see red numbered circles). That was a swing low is going back to May 18, May 21, May 25, and June 1 (before breaking below and failing on a new low going back to 2015).  Yesterday, the low held the level, and in the early Asian session, the retest of the area also held support.   That gave the buyers the courage to push the price back higher as risk can be defined and limited against the level.

The move higher gathered momentum after some consolidation near the 100 and 200 hour moving averages between 1.20619 and 1.20688 (see below green lines). When the prices started to gather momentum above those moving averages, the sellers turned the buyers, and the price rise has continued above a swing area between 1.20898 and 1.20949, toward the 50% retracement at 1.21074, and above a trendline near 1.21057. 

What would hurt the bullish bias?

Watch the 1.20898 to 1.20949 as a support area that if it holds, would keep more of a bullish bias from a technical perspective (see blue numbered circles).  

Crude oil prices are lower by about $0.50 or -0.76% at $68.31. That may also be helping some of the Canadian dollar weakness today. However, with the global reopening taking hold, there is some risk should oil prices continue its more upward trend. 

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