January 27, 2023

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USDCAD skimming the recent bottoms and finding support buyers

2 min read

Dip to new lows stalls ahead of the low extreme

The USDCAD moved to a new low for the day in the North American session (and new cycle low going back to March 18).  The low did dip below the swing low from Monday at 1.23837, but could not extend below a swing area between 1.2377 to 1.23837 (see lower yellow area).  That area is support ahead of the extreme low from March 18 at 1.23646.  

Dip to new lows stalls ahead of the low extreme

Drilling to the 5-minute chart below, I wrote yesterday, that getting back above the 50% of the last trend leg lower from Monday’s trade was needed to give the buyers some control.  The pair tried yesterday. The pair tried today, but there no fewer than 14 attempts we are the price traded between 38.2% retracement of 50% retracement, and each fell short of extending higher. Sellers remained in control.

The last run lower found sellers initially against the converged 100 and 200 bar moving averages and the pair fell to a new low. 

Now with the price moving back up toward those moving average lines, traders may look to them for resistance again. If the price can stay below (the blue and green line in the chart below), the sellers would still be in firm control. Move above, and the combination of the failure on the break and the move back above the moving average lines, would tilt the buyers more to the upside with the 50% the next key target. 

USDJPY on the five minute chart

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