November 29, 2022

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USDCHF back above the 100 day MA

2 min read

USDCHF bounced off swing area today

The USDCHF is back above its 100 day MA at 0.91547. That is not all that important of late as there has been 10 days in July where the price traded above and below that MA barometer for buyers and sellers intraday.  Yesterday, was the 5th close below the MA level and the 5th failure with the move back above today. That says to me, that “the market” is unsure of the directional bias for the pair (the USD?).  Use that knowledge in trying to understand “the market” (that is the buyers and sellers). 

USDCHF bounced off swing area today

Backing that idea up is that the low yesterday moved below swing lows from July 8 and July 12, leaving the low for the month at 0.9166 as the next target. 

However, the break was only 3 pips before buyers pushed the price back above the lower swing area at 0.9131 to 0.91336.  Today, the low for the day stalled between that swing area and bounced.  Buyers came in. The Sellers could not push toward the lows.   The “market” is just not ready to extend outside of the lower extreme (at least for now).

So what next?

Stay above the 100 day MA and the next target will be the 100 hour MA at 0.91727, the 50% of the move down from the Friday high at 0.9175, and the 200 hour MA at 0.9183. Move above all those levels, and buyers wrestle more control. 

Move back below the 100 day MA with momentum and selling may not be over.   

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