December 4, 2022

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USDCHF moves back below the 100 day MA. Bears tilt the bias in their direction again.

2 min read

100 day MA broken at 0.91562

The USDCHF has broken back below the 100 day MA today at 0.91562. 

The movement from above, to below the MA line is nothing new this month.  There have been 9 days when the price has traded above and below the MA line intraday.  Today would represent the fourth close below the MA level this month iF it indeed does closed below the level today.

In a perfect technical world, traders want to see the price break above or below a key technical level, and move in the direction of the break – not just trade above and below. 

However, in a market where the traders don’t know which way to take the pair, trading around a key technical level like the 100 day MA, may become the norm (vs the exception).    

100 day MA broken at 0.91562  

Nevertheless, the break does tilt the bias more to the downside.  Stay below keeps the bears more control. Move above and the bias turns back to the bullish side. 

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price is currently down testing swing lows going back to July 8 and July 12 between 0.9131 and 0.91336. The low did extend below that level, and is now the lowest level for July with the exception of the the low reached on July 15 at 0.91167.  However, the price is back above that area.  Has the price gone far enough?  Are buyers leaning, and/or sellers taking profit

Given the ups and downs, short-term traders may look to use the 0.9131 level as support on a trade, with the 100 day MA as resistance at 0.9156.  

Working in the Bears favor, however, is that the swing high yesterday in the New York session and again today, stalled  near the 100 hour moving average (today, the high for the day also stalled near the 200 hour moving average). Also, the 100 day moving average has also found sellers against the moving average line on a corrective move higher (see chart below). As a result, the sellers are in control.    

USDCHF on the hourly chart

Nevertheless getting below the 0.91312 is needed to have traders looking toward the July low at 0.91167.   Be aware of the important levels.
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