February 8, 2023

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USDCHF trades down to test 100/200 day MAs

2 min read

Price dips below 200 day MA and briefly below 100 day MA too

The USDCHF has the 200 day MA at 0.90841 and the 100 day MA relatively close to that level at 0.90718.  The pair just move to a new session low to 0.90701. That was just below the 100 day moving average but the price has snapped back higher.  The pair currently trades right at the 200 day moving average.

Price dips below 200 day MA and briefly below 100 day MA too

Needless to say a break of the 100 day moving average (with momentum) should solicit more selling as the biased tilts in the bearish direction. There is also the argument to buy low against the MAs as risk is defined and risk is limited.  The area is key.  

Drilling to the hourly chart below, the price fell below its 200 day moving average last week on Thursday and Friday, but could not sustain momentum. The high price reached yesterday stalled near a topside trendline and the falling 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. Today, the fall back below the 100 and 200 hour moving averages tilted the buyers more to the downside.USDCHF on the hourly chart
Both the hourly moving averages and the daily moving averages are converged today. That is indicative of a non-trending market. At some point the buyers and sellers will resolve that dynamic and move away. The fall below the 100/200 hour MA is a tilt to the downside. The 100/200 day MA is now getting in the way.  Can the sellers give another shove? Or will the buyers come in, force the price back above the 100/200 hour MA and put an end to the selling?  That is what is at stake at this key technical area.
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