Breaks trend line on the hourly and daily chart
The USDJPY is making a break to the downside – trading to a new low for the week, and to the
lowest level since March 4th. In the process, the pair is cracking below trend lines on both the hourly and daily charts.
Looking at the hourly chart, the pair cracked below a trend line connecting the lows from the week at 107.66. Recall from yesterday, the rally off the low reached up to retest the 100 hour MA (blue line) and found sellers against that level (see blue line in the chart above). That kept the sellers in control. Stay below the broken trend line now, will keep the sellers firmly in control.
Taking a broader look at the daily chart below, the price action today is also cracked below a upward sloping trendline. That trendline is at 107.676 (just above the 107.66 trend line on the hourly chart). The move lower today also was able to cracked below its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January low (range for the year) at 107.761. Bearish (if the price can stay below).
The combination of trendlines near the same area, tilts the bias more to the downside from both charts perspectives. Risk is between 107.66 and 107.76. If the sellers are to remain in control (and respects the breaks today), stay below that area would do just that. A move above and traders will be lamenting the failed break instead.
PS the USDJPY has been down 13 of the last 17 trading days (since April 1).