The sellers had their shot below the 100 day MA yesterday and today.
The USDJPY sellers pushed the price below its 100 day moving average for the first time since the end of January during yesterday’s trade. That moving average currently comes in at 109.434 (see lower overlaid blue line in the chart below). The low price extended to 109.06, but rebounded and closed just above that moving average level in trading yesterday.
Today, the price action tried to move back below the 100 day moving average on seven separate hourly bars, but could not sustain momentum on each attempt. Sellers gave up and pushed the price higher over the last few hours. That move has been helped,by US stocks rallying and traders exiting the relative safety of the JPY (pushing the USDJPY higher).
The price has since moved back above its 100 hour moving average at 109.83, but remains below its 200 hour moving average at 110.014 (a downward sloping trendline also cuts across near that level).
Buyers and sellers are now more neutral between the moving average levels and waiting for the next shove. So far the 100 hour moving average has been holding support. However the price it doesn’t need to get back above the 200 hour moving average. On Friday, the price did extend above that moving average level to a high price of 110.324, but reversed lower and started the run to the downside.
A move back below the 100 hour moving average would disappoint the bulls, and have traders looking down toward the 109.684 to 109.74 area (the 109.74 is the earlier high for the day). A move below that level would have traders refocused on the 100 day moving average at 109.434.