Stock fall helping the downside
The USDJPY is tilting back to the downside after testing the 100 hour MA (blue line) at 108.207 and running into the selling on the capital gains tax proposal.
The price is trading down about 15 to 20 pips only, but the holding of the 100 hour MA gives the sellers something to lean against. The price of the USDJPY has only been above the 100 hour MA for 14 hourly bars of 320 since breaking below on April 5th. It would take a move above the 100 hour MA to tilt the bias back to the upside.
The low today reached 107.81. Looking at the daily chart below, that tested the 38.2% of the move up from the January low (so the 2021 range). That level comes in at 107.76. A move below that level would open the downside for more selling. A trend line on the daily cuts across at 107.60. Move below those level could have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint at 106.773.