December 5, 2022

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Will the market take the ADP bait again?

1 min read

The recent track record of this report is dismal

The recent track record of this report is dismal

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the ADP employment report has been downright useless in predicting non-farm payrolls, yet the market falls for it again and again.

Last month was particularly bad with 978K jobs sparking talk of 1m in non-farm payrolls. Instead, the NFP report was at a below-consensus reading at 559K. The month before was even worse.

But like a bad trader who never learns to manage risk, the market will eat it up again this week. The consensus is +600K.

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