January 27, 2023

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AUDUSD head and shoulder-ing?

2 min read


Back below 100 hour MA

The AUDUSD ran higher last week and into this week with the price peaking at 0.78152. The price correction lower did down to test the 50% retracement of the move higher from last week’s low at 0.76992 (call it 0.7700). The pair tested its 200 hour moving average as well (green line).

Back below 100 hour MA

The correction higher extended above its 100 hour moving average in the North American session yesterday and tried to extend in the Asian session today, but could not keep the momentum going. After some ups and downs that took the price above and below the 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 0.77473), the price has now moved to a new session low, with sellers winning the battle. 

Stay below the 100 hour moving average at 0.77473, will keep the sellers more in control now.  The next targets become the 38.2% retracement at 0.77266 and the 200 hour moving average at 0.77125.  The price last traded below the 200 hour moving average back on April 13 when the pair extended above both the 100 and 200 hour moving averages and started the trend higher.  

If the price can break below the corrective lows from Monday at 0.7705 and yesterday at 0.7799, traders will be talking about a head and shoulders break. For now, it is more speculation, but in the favor of that view, is that the pair has made a move away from the 100 hour moving average.  There is more work to do, but the bias has shifted in the short term to the downside.  

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