January 27, 2023

Forex Solution

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AUDUSD trades to a new September low

1 min read

Trades the lowest level since August 27

The AUDUSD has moved lower as stocks reverse and head to the downside (risk off flows?). 

Trades _the lowest level since August 27

Technically, the price action today saw the pair move up and test its topside trendline and 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) in the early Asian session.  Staying below those levels gave the go-ahead to push the downside from a technical perspective. 

The selling has intensified in the New York session. First, on the overall dollar buying after the better than expected data, and perhaps more recently on “risk off” flows (no win situation?).  

Technically, the price decline took the pair below the 50% of the move up from the August 20 low at 0.72915.  Just below that level is a swing area between 0.7277 and 0.72868 (see red numbered circles and lower yellow area).  

Stay below the 50% retracement would keep the sellers firmly in control. A move above that midpoint level may muddy the waters especially if the lower swing area and up holding support.  Moving below 0.7277 should open up the door for further downside momentum

For now, the sellers are more in control with the next support target to get to and through.  Watch the 50% for close resistance. If the price starts to trademark comfortably above that level, there could be a rotation back to the upside.
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