February 3, 2023

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Broken hearts for gold bulls once again

1 min read

Can’t get a lift on soft inflation, crushed in retail sales

Gold is in a weak seasonal period right now and judging by the price action, there’s no much conviction left for gold bulls. They’ve watched just about every other asset class soar in the past year as gold treads water.

Today gold is down $38 to $1753.

Can't get a lift on soft inflation, crushed in retail sales

The dollar is getting the blame but it’s up around 0.4% while gold is down 2.2%.

There’s clearly an element of despair at play here. US 10-year yields are up 4.4 bps to 1.348% which puts them almost precisely back to where they were before the CPI report on Tuesday.

Technically, in the short term it looks like a head-and-shoulders pattern that’s nearly completed. The old July low at $1750 could offer some fledgling support.

The better seasonals kick in for gold in November and I don’t see a good reason to wade in until we’re near then.

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