EUR/USD moves up to 1.1755 on the session
The pair is trading at the highs for the day, as the euro inches a little higher even as major currencies in general look more subdued overall.
EUR/USD is up to 1.1755 and is testing the July lows (now turned resistance) @ 1.1750-55. That will be the key region to watch on the daily as sellers look to try and pin the pair towards 1.1700, after having failed to break support @ 1.1704-11 earlier this week.
In other words, sellers attempted to breach below support @ 1.1704-11 but didn’t manage to. They kept some semblance of control technically below 1.1750-55 but if buyers can push past that area, then sellers would see a loss of momentum i.e. less conviction.
Looking at the near-term chart though:
Price action has already suggested that sellers are losing some near-term control, with price now moving back in between the key hourly moving averages; 100-hour moving average (red line) @ 1.1734 and 200-hour moving average (blue line) @ 1.1783.
As such, the near-term bias is seen to be more neutral but from a technical perspective, the 1.1750-55 region adds another layer for sellers to try and limit any near-term upside.
But break above that and there is room to roam for buyers towards the 200-hour moving average @ 1.1783 next. That said, any shift towards an upside bias requires a break above that before the 1.1800 level gets in the way.
As things stand, I still see the dollar as keeping in a favourable spot but the greenback does appear to have lost some momentum/appetite since Wednesday.
Unless there is a shift to the market landscape, I reckon we are more likely to retest the year’s lows again than we are to move towards the recent highs @ 1.1900 at this stage.
However, a lot will come down to how the market positions ahead of Jackson Hole too and the developments leading up to it, so we’ll see. For now, the market is still in search of that next catalyst for a move.