50% retracement also in play
The EURUSD resumed the downward bias after sharp swings to the downside and upside after the US CPI data.
The move back below the 100 hour moving average at 1.21260, re-tilted the bias back to the downside. The pair has now returned to the 200 hour moving average of 1.20773. The move lower and run back higher was 80 pips. The decline back down was covered 72 so far, and in doing so as we approached the 200 hour MA at 1.20774. The 50% of the May trading range is at 1.20815.
In a repeat of the earlier post, watch the 1.2100 to 1.2104 area now (1.2104 is the broken 38.2%) for resistance. If the price can stay below that, it is more bearish and also is a signal that perhaps the markets are a bit more calm after the volatile/low liquidity runs seen earlier after the CPI data.
On downside, getting and staying below the 200 hour MA is the next key target. A break will have traders targeting the 61.8% at 1.20588. The key 100 day moving average is lower at 1.20448.