Dips below the low from yesterday
The EURUSD has moved to a new session low and in the process has dipped below the swing low from yesterday at 1.1877. The price just reached 1.18755.
The range for the day is now 33 pips which is still well below the 22 day average of 64 pips (the range is only 51% of the normal range). There is room too roam, but the new low is so far not leading to a race for the exits. Nevertheless the bias remains tilted to the downside.
Looking at the hourly chart, the highs for the first three days of the week tried to extend above the 200 hour moving average on the number of hourly bars(see red arroows). The traders did not race and buy above those MAs either. The inability to move above that moving average with any momentum, keeps the sellers more control.
The range for the week is only about 69 pips. When the average trading range for the day(over the last month) is 64 pips and the range for the week (1/2 over) is only 69 pips, “there is a problem Houston”. Something eventually will have to give and the price will trend away.
Of course the US employment report will be released on Friday, and traders may be waiting for that key release. The ADP report was a little stronger than expectations which has helped the dollar a bit (or so it seems), but needless to say the EURUSD is not exactly running – at least just yet.
PS. It is also also month end, quarter end and the end of the first half of 2021.