Stay below the 100 hour moving average tilts the up-and-down bias more to the downside
The GBPUSD has slid back below its 100 hour moving average today and stay below that level over the last 3+ hours of trading (with a successful test). The price moved above that moving average during yesterday’s trade, but found sellers against its 200 hour moving average (green line). The inability to extend above the 200 hour moving average frustrated the buyers. The price had to move somewhere, and it was back below the 100 hour moving average most recently.
If the selling is to continue, the next hurdle would be to get below the 38.2% retracement at 1.38255 and a swing area near that level between 1.3264 and 1.38327 (see lower yellow area and red numbered circles). Yesterday, the price did fall below that area but could not sustain momentum . Moving back above the level led to traders covering.
The technical story remains the same. The area needs to be broken and stay broken to keep the bias tilted in the sellers favor.
Conversely, a move back above the 100 hour moving average would ruin the advantage the sellers now own. A break above would have traders retargeting a swing area between 1.3871 and the 1.38761 (see green numbered circles and the upper yellow area) and the 200 hour moving average at 1.38831 (green line).