December 9, 2022

Forex Solution

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GBPUSD mired in a narrow trading range. Look for the break.

2 min read

Low to high trading range of only 40 pips so far today.

The GBPUSD is mired in a very narrow trading range today.The low to high ranges only 40 pips compared to the 22 day average of 88 pips (about a month of trading).  What’s the significance?  There is room to roam.  

Low to high trading range of only 40 pips so far today.

Which way?

The reason the pair is non-trending is that traders don’t really know which way it wants to go. So there is still some uncertainty. The good news there SHOULD be an extension. If there is a break traders will simply hope for momentum in the direction of the break.  If it fails, don’t be surprised for a move to and through the other extreme. So be aware. Listen to the market price action.

Are the technicals giving any clues?

The 1.4100 area has been providing good support for the pair. Stay above that level tilts bias more to the upside.  

The price has moved above its 200 hour moving average and traded most of the day above that moving average level. That currently comes in at 1.41163.  

The bearish caveat, is that the 100 hour moving average has been more or less respected. There was a brief break above, but that momentum could not be sustained. The 100 hour moving average is currently at 1.41376 which is also where the broken 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 13 low is found.

Get above the 1.41376 level and there should be more upside momentum. The next target would be the 1.41524 to 1.41654 old swing ceiling area going back to May 10 to May 12.  Move above that level and traders will be looking toward 1.4182.  

If the price was back below the 200 hour moving average at 1.4116, and then crack below 1.4100, traders will look toward the 1.4075 to 1.4078 area. Move below that, and there should be more downside momentum.

The market is “unsure” with a modest more bullish bias.  The key levels are defined. There is room to roam. Be on the look out for the break and if it happens momentum in the direction of the break (with an eye on a failure and reversal). 

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