March 26, 2023

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GBPUSD trend move stalls near swing high area from last week

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Topside trend line and swing area from last week stalls the rally

The GBPUSD initially stalled near its 200/100 hour moving averages between 1.38946 and 1.3899 earlier in the New York session. The price then corrected down toward the 38.2% retracement of the move since April 12 at 1.38784, before basing and moving higher. 

Topside trend line and swing area from last week stalls the rally

The break of the MAs (blue and green lines), sent the price up toward the swing area between 1.3924 and 1.39314 (along with a downward sloping trendline). Those levels corresponded with  swing highs from Monday and Tuesday of last week. On Wednesday the price cleared through that level after the FOMC, and then held support on Thursday (see red numbered circle 5). On Friday, the area was broken and the price ran to the downside. So not only was the level resistance, but also support before becoming resistance again. 

Today’s move back to the upside has so far respected that area (along with the downward sloping trendline.  On the downside, the 100 and 200 hour MAs are now close support. 

The risk levels are now defined and the market prices consolidating between swing little resistance above, and moving average support below.  Traders will be looking for the next shove (as usual when while defined technical levels provide support and resistance.  

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