November 29, 2022

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GBPUSD tries life above the 200 hour MA (again)

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The 200 hour MA has been breached and failed a number of times on Thursday and Friday. 

The GBPUSD is trying once again to break above the 200 hour MA. Yesterday and again today, there have been a number of breaks on the hourly chart, with each failing. The rush above the MA on the last hourly bar is the latest effort.  The bias shifts more to the upside.  It will take yet another failure to change that bias.  I am on the buyers side.

All been breached

The high today in the Asian session stalled just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the July trading range at 1.37802.  Get above that level, and the high for the week from yesterday at 1.37865 followed by a swing area between 1.37965 to 1.38004 would be targeted.  A move back below the 200 hour moving average, and the bullish party is over. 

For the week, the price closed last week near 1.3760. With the current price now trading at 1.3768 (as I type), the GBPUSD is back in the black for the trading week. The climb from the low on Tuesday at 1.3571 has taken the price up nearly 200 pips. 

In the process, the 100 hour moving average (blue line currently at 1.36904), the 200 day moving average (currently 1.37046) and the 200 hour moving average (1.37556) have all been breached. Of course the 200 hour moving average is proving to be the tough one to stay above.

Looking at the daily chart, the Tuesday low stalled ahead of the swing low going back to February 2021 at 1.35608 (the low this week reached 1.3771.  The fall below the 200 day moving average, was the first break going back to September 2020. However, the price can only close below that moving average on two separate days before rebounding back above on Wednesday.

GBPUSD on  the daily chart

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