December 9, 2022

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NY Fed Nowcast moves to 3.7% from 4.2% last week

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ADP payroll and ISM trump the US job gains.

The NY Fed Nowcast estimate for 3Q grown slowed to 3.7% from 4.2% last week.  

How can that be given the strong US jobs report?

ADP payroll and ISM trump the US job gains.

Indeed the nonfarm payroll added 0.18% to the weekly change in the NY Fed’s model. However, those gains were trumped this week, by the ADP jobs number. That release subtractive -0.29% from the GDPs model this week. The ISM manufacturing employment index also was a negative, as was the ISM composite index (-0.14% and -0.12% respectively). 

Recall, the ADP report on Wednesday forecasted job growth at 330K for July. The US jobs report today came in a much stronger at 943K with revisions of over 100K as well.  That divergence in jobs, flowed through to the NY feds GDP model, and is a risk to the post covid data.  What can you believe?

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