December 4, 2022

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NZD higher on strong business survey, sooner RBNZ rate hike expectations

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Forex news for Asia trading on
July 2021 

New Zealand posts, strong business survey and subsequent RBNZ rate hike forecasts (and a little more):

New Zealand dollar was a mover on the session here, dragging the
Australian dollar along behind. The NZD began its rise on the
publication of the NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO),
which is a closely watched NZ economic indicator. Today’s release
was the survey results for Q2 of 2021 and it painted a picture of a
strong economy with rising inflation pressures.

after its release, with NZD/USD up a few tics, a New Zealand bank, ASB,
revised its RBNZ cash rate hike projection, analysts at the bank
saying they now expect the RBNZ to hike at the November meeting this
year. ANZ in NZ followed quickly afterwards, in a research note
analysts reiterated they expected the central bank to raise the cash
rate “sooner rather than later” but not yet putting a firm date
on their forecast. NZD/USD moved higher, to above 0.7060 where it
found a top and slinked along sideways for a few hours.

was the next cab off the rank, also publishing a forecast for a
November rate hike. This sent NZD/USD to a fresh session high above
0.7070 where it is as I post.

generally, market pricing firmed up for a November hike.

trading higher today was oil, further responding to the news out
during US time Monday (the US holiday observed for July 4
Independence Day was Monday July 5 with US markets closed) that the
OPEC+ meeting had been abandoned after no agreement could be reached.
More on this in the bullets above but the summary story is an output
increase of 400K barrels a month in August and each month after
through to December (inclusive) was more or less agreed to but the
United Arab Emirates refused to sign on as they are seeking a great
share of output. The country has invested to boost output and is
ready to pump more oil but are unhappy with their current base
allocation and want further.

Still ahead … The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy statement will come at 0430 GMT and Governor Lowe speaking following at 0600 GMT. 

NZD higher:

Forex news for Asia trading onTuesday6July 2021 New Zealand posts, strong business survey and subsequent RBNZ rate hike forecasts (and a little more):

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