June 28, 2022

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Oil falls below $63 in reversal on the anniversary of negative plunge as ugly candle forms

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It’s been one year since oil was negative

WTI is down 88-cents today to $62.53in a disappointing reversal after hitting a one-month high of $64.38 earlier today.

We’re into the roll today so I’m looking at the June contract.

The important recent move was on April 14 when crude jumped 5% and broke out of a three-week range. The low since then is $62.53 so that’s important support for today and it’s just given way. As it stands, that puts an ugly bearish engulfing candle on the chart.

It's been one year since oil was negative

Iran touted some progress in nuclear talks today so that could be weighing but I think it’s the broader risk tone that’s undermining crude. Airline and cruise stocks are being battered today on reopening worries. There isn’t much talk about it but mediocre vaccine takeup in the US is creeping in as a story and I wonder if that begins to sting. The US government is planning a huge advertising push imminently so hopefully that helps.

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