A deal is in the bag
There are a few small hurdles to get a deal done but it looks like it’s coming. Iran’s lead negotiator Abbas Araghuchi said the draft texts for a return to the deal are mostly done.
WTI is at $62.03 on the statement, down 5.3% on the day.
The question has always been ‘how much is priced in’ for a deal. I tend to think that with all the recent statements, it should have been anticipated. That said, it’s tough to do in the physical market and depends how Iran returns to the market.
For the longer-term, I like buying a dip on a deal announcement. That would take a big risk out of the market and OPEC+ has proven that they’re in it to win it. So if Iran’s oil makes the market less balanced, OPEC will wait longer to bring back production. And eventually the pandemic ends and demand surges.