December 4, 2022

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The USDCHF backs off from the 100 hour MA. Can that MA be broken (and stay broken)?

2 min read

Falling 100 hour MA but traders still have trouble breaking

The USDCHF moved back above its 100 hour moving average for the 2nd time this week.  Recall from Monday’s trading, the price moved above that moving average line at 0.8990 (at the time), but quickly reversed and buyers turned sellers. The low price yesterday reached 0.89299. That was the lowest level since February 17, 2021.  The price snapped higher but still closed marginally lower on the day.

Falling 100 hour MA but traders still have trouble breaking

Today, the pair chopped lower for most the day, but rallied with the US dollar early in the North American session. That rally was able to take the price back above the 100 hour moving average – this time at a lower hurdle of 0.89681. 

However, like Monday the momentum cannot be sustained in the price has moved back down.

We are currently testing the swing low from last week’s trading at 0.89531. That is a key intraday target. If the buyers want to remain in the game, they need to hold that level and ultimately push to and through the 100 hour moving average above.

Failure to hold 0.89531, and a retest of the lows for the day and the lows for the week cannot be ruled out.

Key battle in progress in the USDCHF. 

Yesterday SNBs Jordan said that the Swiss franc remains overbought. That is not a huge surprise but it makes you wonder if there might be some bids in the USDCHF just because…..Words nevertheless are one thing.  They have to be supported by “the market”. That is reflected by action.  Technically speaking, the 100 hour MA (followed by a break of the 200 hour MA at 0.89888) is the minimum if the buyers are to take control (and the CHF work off some of the overbought condition that Jordan believes….

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