February 2, 2023

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The USDCHF reaches 200 day MA target but fails on breaks

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Two moves below the 200 day MA today both failed

The USDCHF yesterday tried to extended above its 200 hour moving average for the first time since April 5 (higher green line in the chart below). The move above failed, and buyers turned to sellers. The price trended lower.

Two moves below the 200 day MA today both failed

Today, the Asian and London session lows move below the key 200 day moving average (lower green line and 0.90870).  Each of those two breaks failed with the lowest low coming in at 0.90796.  That’s a problem for the sellers. However, what keeps the sellers in play (and gives them some control) is that on the way to the downside yesterday, the pair fell below a swing area between 0.9121 and 0.9123. The high price today extended to 0.91188. So sellers leaned against that old floor and that keeps a battle going on between the 200 day moving average and that swing area.  Buyers and sellers are both in play.

At some point the price will either break above the old swing floor or break below the 200 day moving average. For now, the traders are battling it out.

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