June 28, 2022

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There is an election coming up in the UK on Thursday 6 May 2021

1 min read

Scottish Parliamentary election is happening today.

A preview via ING, in summary:

  • renewed focus on the question of Scottish Independence … voters are now more 50:50 on the issue, erasing a previous lead for ‘Yes’ that had built up through the pandemic. 
  • The main question …  is whether the Scottish National Party (SNP) manages to gain an outright majority in the Scottish parliament, though there is a possibility of a coalition with the pro-independence Green party if they don’t.
  • The upshot is a formal request for a second independence referendum is likely over the next few years. 

ING don’t see much sterling impact:

  • We expect the impact of the Scottish elections on GBP to be very limited. Regardless of the result, most don’t expect an imminent vote on independence. Given a second referendum (if one happens) is probably years away, there’s limited need for such a risk premia to be priced into sterling. GBP currently trades cheap vs EUR, also suggesting limited downside

Concur.  

Johnson and Sturgeon being chummy. 




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